EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

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EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby fockfish » Fri Jul 22, 2011 8:58 pm

The new version 3.11.3 beta doesnt calculate the EV anymore!
No more golden line! Sad but true...
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Re: EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby StevenM » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:09 pm

fockfish wrote:The new version 3.11.3 beta doesnt calculate the EV anymore!
No more golden line! Sad but true...


Tracking software cannot calculate EV, we can only calculate all-in EV. By definition EV is your expectation of the pot by calculating the equity vs your opponents range and correlation it to the size of the pot. Since it requires a human being to determine a range of hands that your opponent might have in a given situation, PokerTracker instead uses all-in EV in specific situations where all the players cards are known after an allin has occurred, and no players fold. If your poker site does not show the mucked cards then all-in EV cannot be calculated, likewise we cannot calculate scenarios where a player folds after an all-in has occurred in multiway pots because the unknown hand affects the EV of the decision. All-in EV is therefore not a true measurement of luck unless you are playing specifically in heads up games on a poker site that records the mucked hands at showdown.

With that said, I am seeing the "golden line" over here, could it be that your sample size does not include hands that qualify for all-in EV calculation?
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Re: EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby tarix » Sat Jul 23, 2011 5:32 am

Sites which currently do not show mucked cards in their hand histories:

* OnGame Network
* Enet Network
* Yatahay Network
* Bodog
* Boss Media / IPN
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Re: EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby fockfish » Sat Jul 23, 2011 6:51 am

StevenM wrote:
fockfish wrote:The new version 3.11.3 beta doesnt calculate the EV anymore!
No more golden line! Sad but true...


Tracking software cannot calculate EV, we can only calculate all-in EV. By definition EV is your expectation of the pot by calculating the equity vs your opponents range and correlation it to the size of the pot. Since it requires a human being to determine a range of hands that your opponent might have in a given situation, PokerTracker instead uses all-in EV in specific situations where all the players cards are known after an allin has occurred, and no players fold. If your poker site does not show the mucked cards then all-in EV cannot be calculated, likewise we cannot calculate scenarios where a player folds after an all-in has occurred in multiway pots because the unknown hand affects the EV of the decision. All-in EV is therefore not a true measurement of luck unless you are playing specifically in heads up games on a poker site that records the mucked hands at showdown.

With that said, I am seeing the "golden line" over here, could it be that your sample size does not include hands that qualify for all-in EV calculation?


Our old discussion:

"Re: Accurate EV calculation

Postby StevenM » Wed Jun 29, 2011 12:29 pm

fockfish wrote:Obviously, one cant calculate hands without knowing the cards of the opponent- but thats not the point!!
If an all-in EV is calculated, u dont have 100% of the info, either! There are people who limped but folded on the flop- woooow, thats money, too, isnt it?



In the situation your provided, All-In EV cannot be calculated. Their presence in the pot affects the Expected Value of your play, we need to know their range of hands in order to calculate the EV. PokerTracker is mathematically accurate, we cannot fudge the numbers ;-) Keep in mind that there are MANY poker rooms which do not provide mucked cards at showdown, when this occurs we can never calculate all-in EV. The majority of the players who want to have EV calculation automated are used to rooms like FullTilt (which was just closed by their licensing board in Alderny, very sad news) which showed all known cards at showdown, but many poker rooms do not write these cards in their hand histories - which means it is impossible to calculate. Now imagine if you played on both Bodog and FTP at the same time, you would have some pretty messed up data because Bodog doesn't show cards at showdown - your graph would be totally inaccurate."

YES YES YES...

Obviuosly, thats a very very small inaccuracy!
Come on, thats ridiculous.

If there a pots where some people fold on the flop, while others are allin, its clear that this cant be calculated...
But cause of the blinds? THATS RIDICULOUS... A very very small inaccuracy!

Thanks PT!
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Re: EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby fockfish » Sat Jul 23, 2011 12:39 pm

tarix wrote:Sites which currently do not show mucked cards in their hand histories:

* OnGame Network
* Enet Network
* Yatahay Network
* Bodog
* Boss Media / IPN


Obviously, its the most timesaving approach to exclude all the hands from these sites...
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Re: EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby tarix » Sat Jul 23, 2011 11:12 pm

fockfish wrote:Obviously, its the most timesaving approach to exclude all the hands from these sites...


I'm not sure what you mean by time-saving, there is no time saved. These sites are excluded to preserve the accuracy of the all-in equity statistic.
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Re: EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby fockfish » Sun Jul 24, 2011 8:13 am

tarix wrote:
fockfish wrote:Obviously, its the most timesaving approach to exclude all the hands from these sites...


I'm not sure what you mean by time-saving, there is no time saved. These sites are excluded to preserve the accuracy of the all-in equity statistic.


Time-saving for you! What do you think?

There are situations (lets say in a SNG) where two guys go allin. The pot will be 3030 chips (30 of the blinds which folded)...
This hand cant be calculated, cause we dont know the cards of the guys who folded 30 chips- thats a joke!

Usually, the support called these situations "not substancial", while in other situations the amout which was unknow (mucked cards) was "substancial".

So lease, dont tell me that this problem was unknown a year ago- I could show you all these mails!!
NOW- suddely- you guys realized that its 100% accurate not to calculate any hand (if there are mucked cards involved)?

These sites dont care bout their players (who want to see these mucked cards)- and you dont care either.
I dont únderstand this approach- maybe you have too many customers...
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Re: EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby WhiteRider » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:56 am

The problem with those sites is that they don't write mucked cards when they are not shown at the table so that we can only calculate EV when your opponent wins (or those cases when they bet last and you call) - when you bet and they call but don't show we don't see their cards. This means that a whole set of results from certain types of hands will be missed, and that would skew your results massively so the all-in EV is not calculated for those sites.
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Re: EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby fockfish » Sun Jul 24, 2011 1:45 pm

WhiteRider wrote:The problem with those sites is that they don't write mucked cards when they are not shown at the table so that we can only calculate EV when your opponent wins (or those cases when they bet last and you call) - when you bet and they call but don't show we don't see their cards. This means that a whole set of results from certain types of hands will be missed, and that would skew your results massively so the all-in EV is not calculated for those sites.


Some hands can be calculated, others cant...
Shall I post our last email conversation where u told that?

In cashgames nothing is calculated anymore, also in SNGS...
THERE ARE SO MANY HANDS THAT QUALIFY FOR BEING CALCULATED!!
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Re: EV doesnt work (ANYMORE) after update...

Postby Fichalicious » Sun Jul 24, 2011 2:57 pm

i guess when there is an allin the hands are shown at the table right? but there is simply no allin ev graph anymore.......
yesterday it was there.
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