3Bet preflop and folded either preflop or on flop

Discuss how to create custom stats, reports and HUD profiles and share your creations.

Moderators: WhiteRider, kraada, Flag_Hippo, morny, Moderators

3Bet preflop and folded either preflop or on flop

Postby PeteX » Fri Sep 14, 2012 11:53 am

I'm making a stat that tells me how likely it is for me to make an opponent to fold either preflop or on flop after he 3bets me. For example, I open-raise light from CO and get 3bet by the button -> If the value of this stat is high, I might 4bet him preflop or call and then donk/check-raise flop. If this is low, then I'm likely to fold. The stat should account for all opportunities to fold preflop and flop after the villain has 3bet preflop. I'm not including the turn here because obviously I'm looking to get away cheap and quickly with a bluff, not prepared to fire multiple barrels OOP.

So would these be the proper expressions for the columns or is there something missing:
numerator:
sum(if[cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_p_3bet
AND NOT cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_p_4bet
AND (cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_p_fold OR cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_fold), 1, 0])

denominator:
sum(if[cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_p_3bet
AND NOT cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_p_4bet
AND (cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_p_4bet_def_opp OR cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_f_face_raise OR cash_hand_player_statistics.amt_f_bet_facing>0), 1, 0])
PeteX
 
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:12 am

Re: 3Bet preflop and folded either preflop or on flop

Postby kraada » Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:05 pm

That should work but it will only add each potential hand a maximum of once - which means a hand like this:
CO opens, BTN 3bets, CO 4bets BTN calls, CO shoves flop, BTN folds would count as 100% (1/1) for the purposes of this stat.

I just wanted to make that clear in case that wasn't what you wanted to see.
kraada
Moderator
 
Posts: 54430
Joined: Wed Mar 05, 2008 2:32 am
Location: NY

Re: 3Bet preflop and folded either preflop or on flop

Postby oracle3001 » Fri Sep 14, 2012 5:11 pm

Excuse my ignorance, but why is

cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_p_3bet
AND NOT cash_hand_player_statistics.flg_p_4bet

required? Surely a player can only 3bet OR 4bet, and in addition the 3rd term handles all cases when player fold preflop or on the flop?

Furthermore to OP...Why would you want to combine these two events into one term, surely it could actually be in fact counter-productive. If you can see this % fold, but I not sure how it helps you to decide if you should 4-bet pre or flat and try and take it away on the flop? Those are two different plays, but the way you have set up the stat you won't be able to tell which is a better or even reasonable line to take.

Instead you could just use fold to 4-bet to ascertain if a 4-bet is a worthwhile rebluff and fold to flop bet in 3bet pots to work out if villain is willing to give up marginal hands on the flop.
oracle3001
 
Posts: 851
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 4:12 am

Re: 3Bet preflop and folded either preflop or on flop

Postby kraada » Fri Sep 14, 2012 5:44 pm

The flg_p_4bet flag includes 4bets or higher - so in this case we are making sure we 3bet and did not 5bet (or higher in weird multiway spots).
kraada
Moderator
 
Posts: 54430
Joined: Wed Mar 05, 2008 2:32 am
Location: NY

Re: 3Bet preflop and folded either preflop or on flop

Postby PeteX » Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:40 am

oracle3001: Sure the separate stat would also work, but I just wanted to get one stat that would give me an indication of someones "willingness to give up the pot early after making a 3bet". If he does give it up early, then I can play confidently wery wide range against him and not having to worry about going to turn when the pot's going to be big (remember it's 3bet pot) and I'm likely having to fold my crap.

So this number would just be helping to decide if I should continue or not with practical air vs a certain player. I'm always thinking of some combo-stats to help make easier decisions as my HUD is too cluttered as it is... ;)

Before using this (or any other custom stat) I'm def going to be making some analysis on my datamine-base to see if it has meaningful values. If not, then I'll just ditch it and try something else.
PeteX
 
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:12 am

Re: 3Bet preflop and folded either preflop or on flop

Postby PeteX » Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:56 am

oracle3001 wrote:...fold to flop bet in 3bet pots to work out if villain is willing to give up marginal hands on the flop.

Hmm... But this would include also the cases when hero has 3Bet also, right? In this case I would be interested in seeing the villains willingness to fold when HE has done the pf 3Bet, NOT me. So that would include the cases where villain opens and I 3bet e.g. from button. This is not what I want with this stat, that's a different situation.
PeteX
 
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:12 am


Return to Custom Stats, Reports and HUD Profiles

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests